Risk Management for Utility-Scale Solar Projects: Lessons from the Hoon 14 MW Case

Risk Management for Utility-Scale Solar Projects: Lessons from the Hoon 14 MW Case

Executive Summary

Utility-scale solar projects are often perceived as technically straightforward because photovoltaic technology is mature. Project outcomes, however, depend on far more than module performance. Grid interfaces, substation works, logistics, procurement, schedule, finance, approvals, stakeholder coordination, environmental conditions, security and long-term operation can dominate project risk.

This paper develops a practical risk-management approach using lessons from the Hoon 14 MWp PV plant and associated 11/66 kV substation risk work. The underlying source material used structured risk identification, a Risk Breakdown Structure and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) prioritisation.

Key Messages:

• Solar risk is a project-system issue, not only a technology issue.
• Interfaces deserve explicit risk ownership.
• Prioritisation helps management focus limited mitigation resources.
• Risk review must continue through EPC and operation.

Purpose and Audience

This GSC white paper is intended for utilities, industrial organisations, infrastructure owners, developers, investors, public institutions, engineering leaders and project decision-makers. It is a professional technical publication, not a peer-reviewed academic paper. Its purpose is to structure decisions, identify questions that require evidence, and connect strategic intent with engineering and delivery practice.

How to read this paper: The paper moves from problem definition to a GSC framework, then to implementation, governance and practical recommendations. Tables are decision aids rather than prescriptive standards. Organisations should adapt the framework to their regulatory environment, asset criticality, data maturity and risk appetite.

1. Why Solar Projects Still Fail
PV technology may be mature, but projects remain exposed to development, EPC and operational uncertainty. A plant can meet module specifications and still underperform because of grid constraints, delays, poor interfaces, dust/temperature losses, weak commissioning, contract gaps or insufficient O&M preparation.

In complex delivery environments, political/security conditions, customs and logistics, financing, currency exposure, contractor capability and institutional processes can interact with technical risks. Risk management must therefore be multidisciplinary.

2. Hoon Case Context
The Hoon case concerned a 14 MWp photovoltaic project and an associated 11/66 kV substation. The risk work was undertaken from an owner/project perspective and included structured identification, workshops, a risk register, Risk Breakdown Structure and AHP-based prioritisation.

The value of the case is methodological. It demonstrates how a renewable-energy project can move from an unstructured list of concerns to a prioritised management view that supports mitigation ownership and governance attention.

3. Risk Architecture Across the Project Lifecycle
A useful risk architecture should cover development and approvals; resource/site conditions; design and grid connection; procurement and logistics; construction; testing and commissioning; commercial/financial exposure; stakeholders and security; and O&M/lifecycle performance.

The Risk Breakdown Structure should be tailored to the project rather than copied from a generic template. Its purpose is completeness, ownership and aggregation, not bureaucracy.

4. Proposed Solar Project Risk Breakdown Structure

5. From Identification to Prioritisation
A risk register becomes useful when each risk has a clear cause, event, consequence, owner, probability/impact assessment, response strategy, actions, due dates and residual-risk view.

Probability-impact scoring is a practical first filter. For strategic or high-consequence risks, multi-criteria methods such as AHP can help make relative priorities explicit. AHP should support judgement, not replace it; pairwise comparisons require consistent criteria and competent participants.

6. Interface Risk: The Hidden Multiplier
Solar projects contain interfaces between PV plant and substation, EPC contractor and utility, civil and electrical works, equipment suppliers and commissioning teams, owner requirements and grid codes, and construction completion and operational readiness.

Many serious problems occur not inside a discipline but between disciplines. GSC therefore recommends an interface register alongside the risk register for projects with multiple packages or parties.

7. Climate, Soiling and Performance Risk
High irradiation can coexist with high module temperature, dust and soiling. Energy-yield models should therefore state assumptions for temperature, soiling, availability, degradation, clipping and grid curtailment. Cleaning strategy is both an O&M and water/logistics decision.

Performance guarantees should align with the measurement boundary and the risks actually controlled by the contractor. Ambiguous boundaries can convert technical uncertainty into contractual dispute.

8. Grid Connection and Commissioning Risk
Grid connection can become the critical path even when the PV field is complete. Studies, protection settings, metering, communications, substation readiness, utility witness tests and energisation procedures should be integrated into the master schedule.

Commissioning should prove not only component operation but system behaviour, interfaces, alarms, protection, SCADA, performance measurement and handover readiness.

9. Commercial, Logistics and Security Risk
Long-lead equipment and cross-border logistics can expose projects to customs delay, damage, storage conditions, currency movements and vendor dependence. Procurement strategy should therefore include schedule float, inspection, preservation, spares and alternative response plans.

In higher-risk environments, security and access assumptions should be explicit in cost, schedule and contractor plans rather than treated as external background conditions.

10. Risk Governance Through EPC

11. Practical Risk Register Minimum Fields

• Unique ID and risk family
• Cause–event–consequence statement
• Affected project objective
• Probability and impact
• Current controls
• Risk owner
• Response strategy
• Mitigation actions and due dates
• Residual risk
• Trigger / early-warning indicator
• Status and trend

12. Recommendations for Owners and EPC Teams

• Build the RBS before tendering and update it with bidder/EPC input.
• Create explicit ownership for PV–substation–grid interfaces.
• Link top risks to schedule contingency and cost contingency.
• Use workshops with engineering, procurement, construction, commercial, operations and stakeholder functions.
• Reassess risk after design freezes, major procurement awards, construction mobilisation and before energisation.
• Transfer residual risk and assumptions into O&M rather than closing the register at mechanical completion.

 

Conclusion

The Hoon case reinforces a wider lesson: solar-project success depends on disciplined management of a network of technical and non-technical risks. Structured identification creates completeness; prioritisation creates focus; ownership creates action; and continuous review keeps the risk picture aligned with a changing project. The purpose of risk management is not to predict every problem; it is to improve the quality and timing of project decisions.

 

 

 

References and Further Reading Elkhadrawe, A. et al., Risk Management Analysis for Solar Energy Projects in Libya – Case Hoon (GSC internal research). GSC Hoon 14 MWp PV plant and 11/66 kV substation risk-study material: risk register, Risk Breakdown Structure, workshops and AHP prioritisation. IEEE Professional Communication Society, guidance on effective technical reports and decision-support white papers.